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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|