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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.